ChatGPT4os reply on the commencement of the upcoming recession
While the remarkable performance of various assets in both the stock market and cryptocurrency markets has boosted the confidence of investors and reduced concerns, there are still occasional warnings of an impending crisis. Predictions have been made since the beginning of 2024, with some foreseeing an inevitable inflation crisis, others suggesting that AI has created a bubble that is on the verge of bursting, and still others believing that although there is a bubble, only the Federal Reserve could burst it. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently expressed caution, stating that the growth of the U.S. economy is driven by unsustainable spending and borrowing.
In light of these concerns, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s advanced artificial intelligence (AI) platform, ChatGPT-4o, to determine when the next recession might begin. After analyzing the current state of the economy, ChatGPT concluded that the cycle is indeed heading towards a crash phase, although not immediately. The AI identified several factors that pose significant risks, including inflation, interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, high levels of corporate and national debt, vulnerability of emerging economies, and the increased risk of cyberattacks and job loss due to widespread technology adoption.
When asked about the regions most vulnerable to the expected recession, ChatGPT highlighted developing countries as being particularly at risk. It also identified the Eurozone as unstable and likely to be the epicenter of the crash. On the other hand, the AI predicted that the technology and healthcare sectors, as well as countries rich in natural resources, are likely to be less affected by the crisis.
In terms of timing, ChatGPT predicted that the next recession would start on April 15, 2026, and last between 18 and 24 months. Taking into account the current size and trajectory of the global economy, the AI estimated that the worst-case scenario would result in a reduction of approximately $4.5 trillion in global GDP, while a milder crisis would lead to a decrease of about $1.8 trillion.
When considering the likelihood of this dire scenario, ChatGPT estimated a 75% chance of a major crisis starting in 2026 or one of the surrounding years. The AI identified inflation and interest rates as the most probable triggers, assigning a 70% probability to this scenario. The current geopolitical situation was also deemed risky, with a 65% chance of causing a crash. Additionally, ChatGPT estimated a 60% chance of a recession being triggered by debt levels and potential defaults.
Interestingly, although the AI acknowledged a 60% likelihood of the crisis originating in the technology sector, it did not rank it among the top three likely causes. It clarified that while the technology sector poses short-term risks, it is considered safe in the long run. It is important to note that ChatGPT’s analyses often prioritize technological innovation as a crucial aspect of humanity’s future.
Overall, ChatGPT’s analysis provides insights into the factors, timing, and potential impact of the next recession, highlighting the risks and vulnerabilities in the global economy.
