Investor transforms 18M into 29M by wagering on Donald Trumps win
An anonymous trader made $11 million of “pure profit” betting on Donald Trump’s victory on Polymarket, the leading prediction market. On November 6, the Republican candidate consolidated his long-awaited victory against Kamala Harris for the Democrats, settling the bet.
With the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet closed, traders who were still holding “Yes” shares for Donald Trump or “No” shares for the other candidates were finally able to collect their prize within the difference between $1 and the average price paid per share, below that mark.
In particular, Polymarket’s official account shared the results of an anonymous user who made over $11 million of “pure profit.” The trader purchased $18.02 million of shares at an average of $0.61, receiving $19.43 million in return.
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$11 million in pure profit.
What a trade.
pic.twitter.com/KcfL5kPvoz
— Polymarket (@Polymarket)
November 6, 2024
Presidential Election Winner 2024 bet on Polymarket
It has been an intense ride since January 5 when Polymarket launched the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet.
Notably, Donald Trump started with odds of 40.5% – having his shares changing hands at $0.405. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, started with 3.5%, as Joe Biden was so far the favorite adversary.
Overall, traders wagered over $3.28 billion on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet on Polymarket’s prediction market. $1.33 billion of this total was distributed among Donald Trump’s “Yes” and “No” shares, clearly dominating the market’s interest.
Trump’s “Yes” shares fluctuated between $0.40 and $0.60 most of the time, with brief deviations to the upside, going as high as $0.715 before the settlement.
Presidential Election Winner 2024 bet – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris. Source: Polymarket / Finbold
Prediction market’s popularity during Donald Trump’s elections
The prediction markets have seen a remarkable growth in popularity and relevancy during this year’s US presidential election. Open, universal, and accessible platforms like Polymarket have completely changed the game of information and data, proving their value.
Interestingly, analysts deemed the prediction market a more trusted source than survey polls while often showing different results—proven right. Erik Voorhees, for example, compared the prediction markets to anarchy in a positive way in a post on X.
Markets are beautiful anarchy
Rules without rulers
Order without being ordered
pic.twitter.com/A1chqm7qjM
— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees)
November 6, 2024
Moreover, Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s CEO, said in disbelief that Trump’s campaign headquarters used his platform to discover they were winning.
“I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket. History was made today. Surreal”
– Shayne Coplan
Large-volume bets can indeed offer high accuracy for predictions, considering smart traders have direct financial incentives to gather solid and trustful information to make their bets while leveraging market asymmetries through arbitrage opportunities and hedging strategies.
Instead of relying on a single centralized source, prediction markets’ dynamics reward fact-checking, knowledge, and precision from savvy traders.
In closing, this recent experience may completely change how people access information from now on, facilitated by universal cryptocurrency payments.
Featured image via Shutterstock
